**Poll Shows Labour in Wales Glimmer of Hope Ahead of Senedd Election**
A recent poll conducted by Survation has shed light on the upcoming Senedd election in Wales, offering a glimpse of hope for the Labour Party. The survey indicates a close race between the Labour Party led by Eluned Morgan, Plaid Cymru, and Reform UK, all projected to have similar levels of support at around 24-27%.
The poll, which surveyed 1,027 adults aged 16 and above in Wales between March 10 and April 3, shows a significant challenge for Labour as they face competition from other parties. Although the Labour Party pushed through changes that impact the voting system and constituencies, their support has seen a decrease compared to previous elections.
It is noteworthy that the number of Members of the Senedd (MSs) to be elected will increase from 60 to 96, indicating a shift in the political landscape with no party expected to secure a majority. The party with the largest share of the vote is likely to have an advantage in forming potential coalitions post-election.
The figures from the poll align with previous projections for the Senedd election in 2026, indicating a tight race between Labour, Plaid Cymru, and Reform UK while foreseeing a decline in support for the Welsh Conservatives. In the 2021 Senedd election, Labour received approximately 39.9% of the constituency vote, but this poll reveals a decrease to 27% in current support.
The challenge for Labour lies in retaining its voter base, as less than two-thirds of 2024 Labour supporters are inclined to vote for the party again. Plaid Cymru seems to be the primary beneficiary of defectors from Labour, with 16% of previous Labour voters indicating support for Plaid Cymru in the upcoming election.
On the contrary, the poll suggests a significant decline in Conservative support to 15% of the vote, while Reform UK is positioned to make significant gains, expected to secure nearly a quarter of the vote. Reform UK’s support base is predominantly older, non-graduate voters, primarily located in south Wales.
The survey also sheds light on the top concerns of Welsh voters, with 60% identifying the cost of living as the most pressing issue, followed by health and the NHS, and immigration. Dissatisfaction with the Welsh Government’s performance, particularly in health and social care, poses a risk for Labour given the salience of these issues among voters.
Analysts predict Labour to remain the largest party in the upcoming election but fall short of securing an outright majority. The collapse of their cooperation deal with Plaid Cymru leaves them politically vulnerable, while Plaid Cymru is expected to maintain stable support in its traditional heartlands. Reform UK is poised for a breakthrough, emerging as a significant player in Welsh politics under the new electoral system.
In conclusion, the upcoming Senedd election in Wales is shaping up to be a closely contested battle among Labour, Plaid Cymru, and Reform UK, with no party expected to secure a majority. The evolving political landscape and changing voter dynamics signal a potential shift in power dynamics post-election.