Residents and holidaymakers along the Welsh coast have been warned to brace for potential flooding in the coming days. The combination of high astronomical spring tides and the next named storm could bring winds of up to 80mph and cause disruption. Natural Resources Wales (NRW) has said that this, along with the current unsettled weather, is “contributing to the risk of flooding”. It comes after parts of Wales saw between 50-80mm of rain over a 36-hour period from Wednesday to Thursday.
Now, another area of low pressure is heading our way for Sunday, with BBC Wales weather presenter Sabrina Lee warning of a “potential for the next named storm”. The Met Office has said: “We’re keeping a close eye on developments in the Atlantic Ocean this weekend. An area of low pressure is expected to ‘explosively’ deepen as it crosses the jet stream and this will bring a period of stormy weather to parts of the British Isles on Sunday.” Current forecasts suggest that Northern Ireland and northwest Scotland will be most affected. However, a Met Office weather warning also covers northwest Wales.
With this in mind, we’ve examined what the Met Office weather maps reveal about where will be hit hardest as Wales prepares for Storm Ashley.
Ahead of Sunday, it is set to be a settled day on Saturday with only a scattering of rain on the south Wales coastline at around 10.30am. And the clear weather looks like it is here to stay for Saturday, with only patches of rain across the country. Temperatures will be around the 15C-16C mark for most areas, with gusts of wind around 22mph in Caernarfon, 20mph in Pembroke and 19mph in Aberystwyth.
The settled weather will remain throughout the evening. At 9pm, temperatures will have dropped slightly – 9C in Newtown and Wrexham, while it will be 10C in places such as Merthyr Tydfil and Monmouth. Wales will remain largely dry throughout Saturday evening.
However, during the early hours of Sunday morning, we could see a band of heavy rain shifting from Ireland, to the Irish Sea and to our west Wales coastline. Patches of rain will have reached Cardigan Bay at this point. By 5am, that band of rain will have reached more parts of Wales, in particular in the Pembrokeshire, Carmarthenshire and Swansea areas. Temperatures will be around 11C-14C for most areas, but around 10C in areas close to Wrexham. Gusts of wind will have reached 22mph in Aberystwyth, while it will be around 23mph in Pembroke.
Later that morning, most of Wales will be engulfed by the rain. It will be at its heaviest in more inland areas, around 8-16mm/hour of rainfall hitting parts of Eryri national park in Gwynedd, down to Powys, Carmarthenshire, south Wales valleys, Cardiff and Monmouthshire. The wind’s speed average could be as much as 28mph in Aberystwyth at this point. By 1pm, most of this rain will have shifted to the rest of the UK, leaving Wales fairly dry by the afternoon. Temperatures will be around 14C-15C for most areas.
The more settled and dry weather will continue into the evening on Sunday. Gusts of wind could reach a speed average of 27mph in Aberystwyth, 22mph in Caernarfon and 31mph in Pwllheli. By 10pm, it will remain clear, the wind speed average will have dropped for most areas as well – 26mph in Aberystwyth, 21mph in Caernarfon and 28mph in Pwllheli.
As Wales braces for Storm Ashley, authorities are closely monitoring the situation and issuing warnings to ensure the safety of residents and visitors along the coast. High winds, heavy rain, and potential flooding are expected, urging everyone to stay vigilant and prepared for the impending weather conditions.