Fossil fuel emissions have reached a new high in 2024, according to the latest global carbon budget assessment. The alarming report warns that carbon emissions from fossil fuels are set to hit a record high this year, with no clear signs of a much-needed peak to mitigate global warming. Scientists emphasize that for the world to have a chance at limiting rising temperatures and avoiding the worst impacts of climate change, global emissions of carbon dioxide need to peak rapidly and decline to zero overall.
The assessment reveals that emissions from both fossil fuel use and land-use change, such as deforestation, have increased in 2024. Total emissions have reached 41.6 billion tonnes, up from 40.6 billion tonnes in the previous year. Despite progress in renewable energy adoption and electric vehicles, the global carbon emissions from burning fossil fuels are expected to rise by 0.8% this year, reaching 37.4 billion tonnes. Increased use of gas and oil, alongside a marginal rise in coal consumption, has been driving this upward trend.
The rise in fossil fuel emissions is attributed to various factors, including the resurgence of aviation post-pandemic, increased coal use in India, and growing emissions from countries beyond major emitters like China, the US, and Europe. Additionally, land-use change emissions have also climbed to 4.2 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide, with worsening drought conditions contributing to emissions from deforestation and forest fires.
While there is a glimmer of hope in the reduction of carbon dioxide emissions from land use over the past decade, the overall plateauing of total emissions signifies some progress. However, Professor Pierre Friedlingstein from Exeter University’s Global Systems Institute expresses concern that there is still no indication of a peak in fossil fuel burning, despite the increasingly severe impacts of climate change. Urgent and substantial cuts in fossil fuel emissions are imperative to meet the goals set out in the Paris Agreement.
Under the Paris Agreement, countries pledged to limit temperature increases to “well below” 2C and strive for 1.5C above pre-industrial levels to mitigate extreme weather events, rising seas, and ecological collapse. Professor Friedlingstein stresses that world leaders convening at Cop29 must implement swift and profound reductions in fossil fuel emissions to achieve the 1.5C target, requiring a drop to zero emissions by the late 2030s.
Although atmospheric carbon dioxide levels are on the rise, there are indications of widespread climate action, with renewables and electric vehicles displacing fossil fuels in many countries. While some nations have managed to reduce fossil fuel emissions even as their economies grow, there is consensus among researchers that the crucial peak in emissions is yet to be reached. The report highlights the need for accelerated efforts to transition to a carbon-neutral global economy to combat the escalating climate crisis.
In conclusion, the findings underscore the pressing need for decisive action to curb fossil fuel emissions and transition to sustainable energy sources. The urgency of the climate crisis demands immediate and concerted efforts from governments, industries, and individuals worldwide to limit global warming and safeguard the planet for future generations.