**Almost 18,000 UK deaths a year ‘linked’ to foods making up half of our diets, study finds**
A newly published global study has raised serious concerns about the health impact of ultra-processed foods (UPFs), estimating that nearly 18,000 premature deaths annually in the UK may be linked to their consumption. These findings add fresh urgency to debates about the role of industrially produced foods in the nation’s diet, which now comprises more than half of the typical UK resident’s daily energy intake.
Ultra-processed foods span a broad range—from crisps, processed meats and mass-produced sliced bread, to sugary cereals, biscuits, ice cream and fizzy drinks. According to researchers, these products are often laden with saturated fat, salt, sugar, and a variety of chemical additives, including preservatives, emulsifiers, artificial flavourings and colourings. While convenient and widely consumed, they tend to sideline more nutritious, less processed options and are engineered to appeal to our desire for quick, palatable meals.
The analysis, published in the *American Journal of Preventive Medicine*, examined dietary data from eight countries. The UK emerged with the second-highest proportion of calories from UPFs—just behind the US, where they account for 55% of average energy intake. In the UK, the figure stands at a substantial 53%. Researchers used mathematical modelling to identify trends in premature deaths, concluding that 14 percent of early deaths in the UK and US could be associated with UPF consumption. Colombia, where UPF intake is far lower, saw a much smaller figure of just 4 percent.
Lead researcher Eduardo Nilson, of Brazil’s Oswaldo Cruz Foundation, stressed that the health risks posed by UPFs extend beyond their nutritional profile. “UPFs affect health beyond the individual impact of high content of critical nutrients (sodium, trans fats, and sugar) because of the changes in the foods during industrial processing and the use of artificial ingredients,” he explained. Nilson also pointed to additives such as colourants, artificial sweeteners and emulsifiers as possible contributors to overall health risks.
The team’s model estimates that, in 2018/19, as many as 17,781 premature deaths in the UK could have been linked to UPF consumption. Their findings suggest a 3% increased risk of death from all causes for every 10% rise in UPF contribution to one’s diet—a sobering figure for a country where these foods form a significant part of the typical weekly shop.
However, experts caution that the research is not definitive proof of causation, but rather an indication of a concerning association. Stephen Burgess, a statistician at the MRC Biostatistics Unit in Cambridge, noted, “This type of research cannot prove that consumption of ultra-processed foods is harmful, but it does provide evidence linking consumption with poorer health outcomes.” He added that factors such as physical activity could confound the relationship, and UPFs might not be the sole culprit.
Others echoed this need for caution. Dr Nerys Astbury, associate professor at the University of Oxford, commented, “Many UPFs tend to be high in calories, fat, and sugar, and studies to date have been unable to determine with certainty whether the effects of UPF are independent of the already established effects of diets high in these nutrients.” Dr Astbury also noted the limitations of the ‘Nova’ food classification system, which is commonly used to define UPFs with some degree of arbitrariness and broad categorisation. More targeted research, she suggested, would help clarify whether UPFs themselves or simply their unhealthy nutritional profiles are responsible for the observed health trends.
Despite calls from some researchers for governments to strengthen dietary guidelines—explicitly recommending a reduction in UPF consumption—others believe such changes may be premature, given the present evidence base. There is consensus, however, that the overall uptick in diet-related chronic diseases in the UK, from obesity to cardiovascular illnesses and early mortality, dovetails worryingly with the rise of heavily processed foods in our everyday lives.
The debate now centres on how best to respond. Should the government intervene more forcefully on public health grounds, or do individuals alone bear the responsibility for making healthier food choices? What is clear is that the UK’s collective reliance on ultra-processed foods poses an urgent question about the future health of the nation—a question for which policymakers and the food industry alike will be expected to find answers in the coming years.
As research continues, experts recommend a cautious but proactive approach: prioritising whole, minimally processed foods where possible, while keeping a watchful eye on the emerging science. For now, the debate is set to continue, echoing down supermarket aisles and onto dinner tables across Britain.