Reform UK, a party formerly known as the Brexit Party, recently made headlines by claiming to be at the top of a new poll in Wales. Following a successful Welsh conference where leader Nigel Farage declared the party as Labour’s main competition in the upcoming Senedd election in May 2026, Reform UK has been actively promoting a poll that positions them as leading in Wales by two percentage points ahead of the incumbent Labour party. This news gained traction with headlines such as “Reform set to be biggest party in Wales according to new poll” by Guido Fawkes and “New shock poll puts Reform as BIGGEST party in Wales and at 21% nationwide in latest blow to Labour and Conservatives” by GB News.
The poll in question was conducted by Opinium, surveying 2,116 adults from November 11 to 13, with results weighted to ensure national and political representation. The respondents were asked which party they would vote for in a general election, with Labour leading at 25%, Conservatives at 21%, Reform UK at 17%, and the Liberal Democrats at 10%. The breakdown specifically for Wales showed that out of the 86 participants from Wales, 26% favoured Reform UK while 24% supported Labour. However, the sample size for Wales was relatively small, and polling experts suggest that a more reliable guide to public opinion would require a sample size of around 1,000 people.
Notably, Reform UK’s claim of leading in the polls was further supported by a survey conducted by Cardiff University academic Jac Larner, which analysed the potential outcomes of the Senedd election based on General Election results. The findings indicated a shift in voting patterns, with a significant number of respondents expressing intentions to vote differently in the Senedd election compared to the Westminster election. The survey highlighted that no single party is projected to secure a majority in the Senedd, implying the need for coalition-building.
Additionally, a poll commissioned by Reform UK itself and funded by party supporter Arron Banks surveyed 2,006 Welsh adults between October 18 and November 4. The data, gathered by Survation, focused on constituency and regional voting intentions for the upcoming Senedd election, taking into account the changing voting system where voters will select six representatives for their regions. The poll results suggested that Reform UK could potentially secure around 19 Members of the Senedd, a notable achievement given the party’s current standing and absence of a prominent leader in Wales.
Despite the celebratory tone adopted by Reform UK over the poll results, political analysts caution against placing too much significance on polls with limited sample sizes, emphasising the need for larger and more thorough surveys to accurately gauge public sentiment. While these polls hint at a shifting political landscape in Wales, with growing support for Reform UK, it remains to be seen how these trends will play out in the lead-up to the Senedd election in 2026. As parties gear up for the electoral contest, the dynamics of Welsh politics are poised for potentially transformative changes, paving the way for a closely contested and intriguing election season ahead.