Reform UK, the political group led by Nigel Farage, has reported a significant surge in its membership numbers in Wales. The organisation states that support for them is on the rise, with several polls suggesting that Reform UK could potentially secure around 20 seats in the Senedd during the upcoming May 2026 election. This projection could mark a substantial shift in Cardiff Bay’s political landscape, particularly with the Welsh Senedd set to increase from 60 to 96 seats for the next election. Additionally, changes are expected in the constituencies represented by MSs and the voting system employed for their election.
With three councillors in Torfaen defecting to Reform UK, the party currently has councillors in Wales. However, the Senedd elections will serve as their first specific Welsh test following the acquisition of four MPs in the 2024 general election. According to Reform UK’s statement to WalesOnline, they now boast a membership of 7,800 individuals in Wales. Oliver Lewis, the spokesperson for Wales, emphasised the growing momentum within the party in Wales, highlighting their readiness to offer substantial change for the country. Lewis articulated, “We are only just getting started. Wales is broken. Wales needs Reform.”
The reported membership figure of 7,800 by Reform UK appears to surpass the number of members within the Welsh Conservative party. Reports suggest that the Welsh Conservatives currently have fewer than 5,000 members, a figure that was not refuted by the party when questioned. Despite the lack of automatic public disclosure of such figures, the claim remains unverifiable. A Welsh Conservative spokesperson, while refusing to divulge specific membership details, asserted the party’s substantial membership and activist base, citing recent victories in by-elections post the general election and expressing readiness for the Senedd elections in 2026.
A study examining voting patterns in the 2024 general election revealed a noteworthy shift in support from the Conservative party to Reform UK. Cardiff University professors Jac Larner and Richard Wyn Jones found that a significant portion of individuals who voted for the Conservatives in 2019 transitioned their support to Reform UK in 2024, alongside other movements towards Labour or abstention. The study also indicated a substantial overlap between voters of the two parties. Notably, former Conservative leader Andrew RT Davies has cautioned against underestimating the threat posed by Reform UK, urging the party to adapt and maintain its distinct identity.
Reform UK, under the leadership of Farage and Richard Tice, has been described as a political entity operating with a business model. However, plans are underway to establish a more conventional party structure, as indicated by Farage during the party’s conference in Newport. Farage expressed a commitment to prioritising Wales ahead of the 2026 Senedd elections, highlighting intentions to evolve Reform UK’s organisational structure. While the specifics of leadership appointments and manifesto policies remain undisclosed, Farage underscored the evolving nature of the party and outlined initiatives for structural transformation.
The evolving political landscape in Wales, with Reform UK’s increasing influence and membership growth, signifies a shifting dynamic in Welsh politics. As the party gains momentum and prepares to contest the upcoming Senedd elections, its rise poses a challenge to traditional political stalwarts and underscores an appetite for change among the Welsh electorate. With Farage positioning Wales as a focal point for the party’s future endeavours, the political climate in Wales appears poised for transformation, potentially reshaping the country’s governance and policy direction in the coming years.
This surge in support for Reform UK in Wales mirrors broader trends seen in electoral shifts globally, with established political structures facing challenges from emerging voices and alternative platforms. As Wales navigates towards a new era of governance and representation, the rise of Reform UK offers a lens into the evolving preferences and priorities of Welsh voters. With the Senedd elections on the horizon, the political landscape in Wales is set for a compelling and transformative chapter, shaped in part by the trajectory of parties like Reform UK and their vision for the country’s future.