A recent political poll in Wales has revealed a significant surge in support for Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party ahead of the Senedd election in 2026, compared to the previous Welsh election in 2021. The poll suggests that Reform UK could potentially secure up to 19 seats in the new 96-member Senedd. Furthermore, Nigel Farage, the party leader, has been viewed favourably by respondents, with the highest approval rating among Welsh party leaders, surpassing even Prime Minister Keir Starmer by 1%. However, Farage also shares the highest disapproval rating with 47% of the respondents.
Reform UK has been diligently working to strengthen its presence in Wales, notably launching its “contract with the people” manifesto in Merthyr Tydfil prior to the 2024 general election. The party’s efforts have been yielding results, as evidenced by its second-place position in 13 out of the 32 Welsh constituencies during the last election. To further amplify their momentum, Reform UK is hosting its largest conference to date in Wales, with Nigel Farage and other key figures in attendance.
The polling, conducted by Survation and funded by Arron Banks, a co-founder of the Leave.EU campaign, surveyed 2,006 Welsh adults. The results were weighted based on various factors such as age, gender, and past voting behaviours. With the upcoming changes in the voting system for the 2026 election, where constituents will select six representatives for their region, Reform UK’s growing support could potentially translate into significant gains in the Senedd.
If the elections were held under the existing constituency system, the polling indicates a substantial shift in support, with Reform UK emerging as a major contender alongside Labour and Plaid Cymru. This surge in support for Reform UK could potentially reshape the political landscape in Wales, posing a formidable challenge to long-standing parties like Labour.
Nigel Farage expressed optimism about Reform UK’s prospects, emphasising the party’s capacity to provide a fresh alternative to voters disenchanted with traditional politics. As the Senedd elections draw closer, the political dynamics in Wales are evolving, with Reform UK poised to play a prominent role in shaping the future of Welsh politics.
In summary, the recent political poll in Wales has unveiled a seismic shift in support towards Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party, setting the stage for a compelling and dynamic Senedd election in 2026. With Farage leading a surging Reform UK, the traditional political landscape in Wales is witnessing a significant transformation, with potential implications for the composition and direction of the Senedd in the years to come.