A long-lasting weather system could be heading towards the UK, potentially bringing storms and snow until March 2025. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Centre in the US suggests a 60% chance of a weak La Niña event developing in November. La Niña, part of a natural climate cycle, can trigger extreme weather globally. UK usually experiences colder, stormier winters with increased snowfall during La Niña episodes, particularly in northern and central regions. It is the cool phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, influencing wind and ocean temperatures in the Pacific Ocean. The event intensifies trade winds, causing cold deep-sea water to rise, leading to cooler eastern Pacific temperatures and altering the jet stream’s position, impacting storm paths and precipitation levels.
Climate scientist Michelle L’Heureux from NOAA notes the recurrent, extended nature of La Niña events compared to El Niño. Ben Cook at NASA Goddard Institute comments on the unusual autumn forecast, particularly concerning for drought-affected regions like East Africa. The Met Office explains La Niña’s criteria, indicating 3-5°C below average sea temperatures and cooler, drier conditions in the eastern tropical Pacific. Neutral phases with conditions closer to the long-term average occur approximately half the time. The potential La Niña event could influence global weather patterns through cooler ocean temperatures and atmospheric changes.
Moreover, the UK may face challenges due to the increased frequency of La Niña phenomena, affecting regions with ongoing environmental stresses such as drought. The forecasted weather system underscores the importance of understanding and preparing for climate variability and its potential impacts on various regions. Stay tuned for updates on the evolving weather patterns and their potential consequences for the UK and beyond.