A recent YouGov poll has provided insights into the current state of support for Welsh independence, revealing that less than a quarter of the Welsh population, at 24%, supports full independence. In contrast, 61% of respondents opposed the idea of Wales being fully independent. The poll also touched on the sentiment towards the existence of the devolved Welsh Parliament, known as the Senedd, with 31% of people expressing a desire to see it abolished entirely, while 46% were in favour of it remaining.
Since both Wales and Scotland have had devolved governments for 25 years, discussions have arisen regarding potential further devolution of powers from Westminster to the Senedd. Some voices in Cardiff Bay have advocated for the devolution of justice and policing to Wales. However, during the general election campaign, Jo Stevens, the current UK Government’s Welsh secretary, emphasized other priorities over such devolution proposals.
Regarding the extent of powers granted to the Senedd, the poll revealed that the majority supported an increase in powers for Cardiff Bay, with 40% in favour and 37% against. The second most popular opinion was to maintain the current level of powers, with 39% in support and 35% against. Proposals for the expanded Senedd to have authority over all matters except defence and foreign affairs garnered 32% support and 42% opposition. Conversely, reducing the Senedd’s powers below their current level received the least support, with 23% in favour and 52% against.
The poll surveyed 1,207 individuals aged 16 and above between September 2 and 8. The analysis by YouGov’s Dylan Difford compared the attitudes in Scotland and Wales towards independence and devolution. While Scotland exhibited a higher proportion supporting full independence, Wales saw more scepticism towards existing devolution levels, including opposition to the recent expansion of the Senedd and the emergence of a party aiming to abolish Welsh devolution.
Looking ahead to the next Senedd election in 2026, where the number of elected members will increase from 60 to 96, recent developments include the abandonment of plans for parties to nominate equal numbers of male and female candidates. In the 2021 election, Labour secured 40% of the constituency vote and 36% of the regional vote, positioning them as the leading party ahead of the Conservatives and Plaid Cymru.
The findings of the YouGov poll shed light on the varied opinions within Wales regarding independence and the devolved government, setting the stage for potential shifts in the political landscape leading up to the upcoming elections. The debate around Welsh independence and the powers of the Senedd continues to be a significant topic of discussion, with implications for the future governance and autonomy of Wales.